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Money psychology2001

Fooled by Randomness

Nassim Nicholas Taleb

Helps investors separate skill from luck, understand outcome bias, and stay cautious with strategies that only look good in short samples.

Mental models

Model 1

Use this model to separate skill from luck.

Model 2

Use this model to identify bias before deciding.

Model 3

Use this model to design rules against emotional reactions.

Model 4

Use this model to judge process rather than outcome alone.