Money psychology2001
Fooled by Randomness
Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Helps investors separate skill from luck, understand outcome bias, and stay cautious with strategies that only look good in short samples.
Checklist
Do I have a rule to separate skill from luck?
Do I have a rule to identify bias before deciding?
Do I have a rule to design rules against emotional reactions?
Do I have a rule to judge process rather than outcome alone?
Write down what would invalidate the thesis.
Set a review date before acting.