Fooled by Randomness
Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Helps investors separate skill from luck, understand outcome bias, and stay cautious with strategies that only look good in short samples.
Case studies
Case 1
When applying Fooled by Randomness, choose a real decision and test whether you can separate skill from luck. Record evidence, action, and outcome to avoid hindsight rationalization.
Case 2
When applying Fooled by Randomness, choose a real decision and test whether you can identify bias before deciding. Record evidence, action, and outcome to avoid hindsight rationalization.
Case 3
When applying Fooled by Randomness, choose a real decision and test whether you can design rules against emotional reactions. Record evidence, action, and outcome to avoid hindsight rationalization.
Case 4
When applying Fooled by Randomness, choose a real decision and test whether you can judge process rather than outcome alone. Record evidence, action, and outcome to avoid hindsight rationalization.