Psychology determines the quality of execution
A good strategy can still fail if investors continuously break discipline at times of stress.
Step 13
Pre-Mortem and Post-Mortem Analysis
Level: intermediate
Learning objectives
- Identify bias: Understand how Pre-Mortem and Post-Mortem Analysis affects perceptions, emotions and investment behavior.
- Distinguish between facts and reactions: Separate market signals, fundamental data, and your own psychological reactions.
- Develop control measures: Design a code of practice to turn reflection into pre- and post-decision processes.
Why it matters
Bias distorts probabilities
Pre-Mortem and Post-Mortem Analysis can cause investors to misjudge risk, expected return and the certainty of the argument.
Capital protection process
Identifying bias early helps reduce impulsive decisions, preserving capital for better probability opportunities.
Core lesson
The essence of the lesson
Pre-mortem imagine the decision has failed to find risk in advance; post-mortem analysis after results for disciplined learning.
At an advanced level, knowing that a bias exists is not enough. Investors need to understand in what context bias appears, how it distorts data, and how it causes position sizing, trade timing, or risk tolerance to deviate from plan.
Analytical framework
Think of every investment decision as a combination of three layers: verifiable facts, market interpretation, and individual psychological reactions. Pre-mortem and post-mortem work becomes unreliable when these three layers are mixed, causing emotions to be presented as analysis or narratives to be mistaken for evidence.
A practical way is to ask: what facts have changed, how probabilities have shifted, how much of that change is already reflected in price, and whether your action still matches the true size of your edge. If you cannot answer clearly, slow the decision down or reduce position size.
How to apply
The goal is to turn reflection into a pre- and post-decision process. This should be included in your pre-trade checklist, decision journal, and periodic review schedule. When strong emotions arise, slow down your decision-making speed instead of trying to overcome emotions with willpower.
You can use the default rules: do not increase positions without clearly writing down how the thesis could be wrong, do not exit completely without checking liquidity needs, and do not change the system just for a short run of results.
Mistakes to avoid
Only analyze after a big loss or just find reasons to blame yourself.
The deeper mistake is thinking that experienced people are immune to bias. In reality, experience is only useful when accompanied by honest feedback, a long enough record, and a process that forces you to examine conflicting evidence.
Key terms
Pre-mortem
The hypothetical decision exercise failed to find potential causes.
Post-mortem
Evaluate after results occur to distinguish right from wrong about processes and assumptions.
Learning loop
The loop records, checks and updates the process after each important decision.
Classification
Lesson group
Advanced investment psychology and behavior.
Level
Suitable after having a foundation in risk, markets, strategy and portfolio management.
Main application
Improve decision-making processes, control emotions, and reduce repetitive behavioral errors.
Real-world examples
Real situation
Before buying, the investor writes three reasons why the investment could lose 30%. After closing the position, they compare the expected risk with what actually happens.
Better handling
Investors should document their assumptions, check conflicting data, identify inaccuracies, and only act with a scale that matches their level of certainty.
Lesson learned
Short-term results can be haphazard, but good processes reduce the probability of major mistakes being repeated.
Common mistakes
Mistaking emotions for signals
Feelings of urgency, fear or excitement are not automatically proof of investment.
Ignore data that goes against the point
Not looking for criticism makes the argument easily become a one-sided belief.
Only analyze after a big loss or just find reasons to blame yourself.
This mistake makes decisions depend on psychological state instead of edge, probability, and risk management.
Practical application
Add to checklist
- Before making a big decision, ask if Pre-Mortem and Post-Mortem Analysis is affecting you and what evidence shows otherwise.
Use a decision journal
- Record the context, argument, probability, sentiment, position size and conditions for changing opinion.
Set deceleration rules
- When emotions are strong, scale back, wait for more data, or ask for a round of reflection before acting.
Exercises
Exercise 1
Set up a pre-mortem for a new investment: assume that after 12 months this investment will lose a lot, list five causes and early warning signs.
Exercise 2
Write three reasons for it, three reasons against it, and one fact that might change your mind.
Exercise 3
After 30 or 90 days, compare the results with the original thesis and record process errors if any.
Key takeaways
- Bias does not disappear just because you can name it: Specific procedures are needed to reduce the impact of bias during times of pressure.
- Good decisions require facts and discipline: Correct analysis but wrong implementation can still cause great damage.
- Deceleration is a skill: When Pre-Mortem and Post-Mortem Analysis comes into play, slower and smaller actions are often better than quick, emotional actions.